Biden Heads to Saudi Arabia, Embarrassment or Great Leadership?
While running for president in 2019, Biden pledged to treat Saudi Arabia as “the pariah that they are,” and while in office, he loudly denounced the nation’s violations of human rights.
However, Biden recently said in an opinion piece that his goal was to “reorient — but not rupture — relations with a country that’s been a strategic partner for 80 years.”
This week, President Joe Biden is travelling to Saudi Arabia as part of his first Middle East tour as the Head of State.
He has a set of objectives, including securing the supply of oil, improving relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, pushing a ceasefire in Yemen, and forging a more united front in the region against Iran.
It’s a contentious move for this president, however, and nobody really knows how much he’ll accomplish.
The planned visit has drawn a lot of criticism from both the right and left for what some call an “embarrassing” climbdown and for showing a blatant turnaround from the strong words Biden had used throughout his campaign and in the first few months of his administration.
Things have changed since then! The price of gasoline in the United States has reached an all-time high, the world’s oil supply has been significantly constrained by Russia’s prolonged conflict in Ukraine, and Biden really, really wants Saudi Arabia and Israel to be pals. Will the trip thus resemble an embarrassing apology or a fresh start for two nations with common goals?
“I wouldn’t go. I wouldn’t shake his hand.” Representative Adam Schiff (Democrat, California) said in an interview in June, when asked about the president’s planned meeting with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. He then referred to the murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi, which the administration attributed to the crown prince. The Saudi government has repeatedly rejected the accusation.
While running for president in 2019, Biden pledged to treat the Saudi Arabia as “the pariah that they are,” and while in office, he loudly denounced the nation’s violations of human rights. He also insisted on viewing Saudi Arabia’s King Salman as his counterpart, rather than the 36-year-old crown prince, who runs the kingdom’s day-to-day affairs.
In March, it was reported that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman declined to answer a call from President Biden as the American leader appealed to Gulf governments to boost oil output in response to the restrictions on Russian oil imports.
The crown prince also said, “Simply, I do not care, It is up to him to think about the interests of America.” when the Atlantic asked whether he believed Biden misunderstood him in an early March interview.
A ‘welcome reset’
Biden now seems to prioritise those interests above what may have once been a more idealistic point of view.
The president wrote an opinion piece titled “Why I’m Going to Saudi Arabia” on Saturday, and it appeared in the Washington Post. “From the start, my aim was to reorient — but not rupture — relations with a country that’s been a strategic partner for 80 years,” he said in it. He emphasised the importance of the partnership between the United States and Saudi Arabia for regional stability and American interests.
Ali Shihabi, a Saudi expert close to the royal court of The Kingdom, believes that Biden’s visit would help mend strained relationships.
He told CNBC: “I think the mistake that the Biden administration made was it took its campaign rhetoric into the administration,” which “hit a wall of realism.”
The visit “is a reset,” he said. It’s also a welcome reset, in my opinion. because The Kingdom likewise values the relationship. They also want to move forward.
“I think by virtue of visiting The Kingdom he puts that behind him, and that allows things to go back to where they were with America previously,” Shihabi added.
Human rights, according to Biden, will continue to be a top priority. But given the other security and energy-related concerns that are being prioritised, many experts believe it’s improbable.
According to Hussein Ibish, a senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, “Biden is hardly the first president to run on a ‘human rights will be central to my foreign policy’ platform, only to be confronted in office by the realities of the Middle East.
Human rights, according to Biden, will continue to be a top priority. But given the other security and energy-related concerns that are being prioritised, many experts believe it’s improbable.
Oil and Israel
Biden has downplayed the administration’s alleged emergency need for Saudi Arabia and other OPEC members to increase oil production in order to lower Americans’ record-high gas costs, according to several experts.
Martin Indyk, a former American diplomat and fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, said in an interview with the Financial Times that “there would be no rapprochement with Saudi Arabia” if it weren’t for the conflict in Ukraine, the tightening of the oil market, and the spike in oil prices.
However, Biden has mainly rejected this, highlighting the importance of Israel’s security. He told reporters in June that the trip “has to do with national security for them — for Israelis.” This might be an attempt to change the subject to Israeli-Arab normalisation, which has the backing of the majority of Democrats and Republicans in Washington.
One modest sign that this objective is being accomplished is the fact that Biden will be travelling straight from Israel to Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. The Biden administration has also pushed for more military cooperation between Israel and the Arab world in order to forge a cohesive coalition under American direction that would have more clout against Iran.
Torbjorn Soltvedt, lead MENA (Middle East & North Africa) analyst at risk intelligence company Verisk Maplecroft, believes that any overt involvement is very improbable and that security cooperation between The Kingdom and Israel would likely continue “behind the scenes” as it has for a number of years.
What does Saudi Arabia want?
While some have claimed that the meeting would completely put the initiative back in the Saudis’ hands, The Kingdom has a number of demands for the United States, chief among them being a steadfast assurance of security.
Shihabi said, “Enhanced air defence – Air defence is vitally essential for the significance of the whole peninsula, as well as the entire Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), and I believe that is where Biden can make a significant impact. The key question would be a more official commitment of resources to safeguard (GCC) airspace.
Will there be a breakthrough?
Despite having many common interests, Biden could still be unable to forge strong alliances, according to Soltvedt of Verisk Maplecroft.
“US calls on Saudi Arabia to increase the rate of oil production has fallen on deaf ears. This is unlikely to change,” he said.
In relation to Russia and China, Biden’s advisers have also discussed Saudi Arabia’s pledge to remain totally united with the United States. However, they caution that the reconciliation attempt won’t succeed in doing so.
“There’s little to suggest that Biden’s strategy of showering the Saudi crown prince with concessions will bring about a sustainable Saudi-Emirati commitment to the US side in the great power competition of this century,” Trita Parsi, co-founder of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, wrote for MSNBC.
He argued that it is not in the interests of the United States to devote military resources to Saudi Arabia and other Gulf allies’ defences.
“Committing American lives to defend these Arab dictatorships is far more scandalous than an embarrassing presidential handshake with the Saudi crown prince,” Parsi said. “Biden will in one swoop break his promises of bringing troops home from the Middle East, making Saudi Arabia pay a price and ending the war in Yemen.”
Others, however, argue that retaining American influence in the region and across the globe depends on having a good connection with Saudi Arabia’s leadership, particularly the crown prince.
“Great power competition with China is not possible by walking away from the Gulf region and hoping for the best,” the Arab Gulf States Institute’s Ibish said. “To the contrary, it means continued engagement.”
“It is a plausible partnership because of broad, shared mutual interests,” he added, “even though the values are not shared or mutual in many cases.”
Is United States president Joe Biden ready, willing and able to represent the interests of the American economy and the world at large?
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